JOLTS shows job openings, hires, quits, and layoffs across the U.S. labor market. It is less timely than payrolls, but it gives a deeper read on labor demand and worker confidence.
What to Check First
- Job openings: whether employer demand for labor is cooling
- Quits rate: whether workers still feel confident enough to leave jobs
- Layoffs: whether cooling is orderly or turning into job loss
Reading the Signal
The soft-landing version is falling openings without a surge in layoffs. That means labor demand is cooling without major job destruction. A high quits rate or high openings-to-unemployed ratio points to wage pressure; a jump in layoffs points to recession risk.
Market Impact
Strong openings can lift yields by keeping Fed easing expectations in check. A moderate decline can be market-friendly if it lowers wage pressure, while a sharp decline with rising layoffs shifts the focus from inflation risk to growth risk.